With gameweek 7 wrapped up I thought I’d take a look at where teams are forecast to finish the season based on their stats so far. I partly wanted to do this to see if what Vincent Whelan said about Liverpool’s title chances over at PunditArena carried any weight as the article received a bit of backlash on social media sites. I’ve done a much larger test of his claim which I hope to put up tomorrow, but for now let’s take a look at how teams are expected to finish the season.
In order to do this I ran a Monte Carlo simulation using team form to simulate every remaining game of the season. This was repeated 10,000 and the total points each team finished the season on were collated and broken down into finishing positions. Check it out below:
The green areas show the most likely finishing positions for each team. City, of course, are strong favourites to win it already and their percentage chance fits well with bookmaker expectations. I was surprised to see Liverpool as most likely to nab 2nd place. They’re playing some phenomenal football this season, but their defensive issues are something that needs to be sorted immediately. As things stand they look certain to get a top 4 finish. Tottenham look most likely to finish fourth despite beating Manchester City today, but I’m sure they’d be happy just to finish above Arsenal…
It’s not looking great for Conte. Chelsea are getting back to their old ways after a dismal season last year, but with a most likely 6th place finish, will Abramovic have the patience the squad needs to start delivering again?
Down the far end of the table, Stoke are the main candidates for relegation, even after nipping a draw from Manchester United. They finished last season in 9th place but with a huge -14 goal difference. Has their over-achieving caught up with them? My own fancy for 20th find themselves one place above Stoke. Sunderland have been circling the drain for years. If there is one team that needs to go down it’s these lads. We need some more new blood!
The final relegation spot looks tight, and it should be a good battle between Swansea, Middlesbrough, and Burnley to stay up in the English top tier.
Tomorrow I will be taking an in-depth look at whether Liverpool really are title contenders, and if not, who might make the biggest challenge to Manchester City’s title claims.