Here is my simple model’s outputs for this weekend’s action. My xGoal model isn’t fully wound-up as of yet, but this model has been surprising reliable for the past 4 seasons, and it is the one that I plan on making a how-to guide for, for all of those interested in making your own analysis. Anyway, here are the figures. Points to note – this model does not take into account things such as injuries, suspensions, weather, transfers, new managers etc… it is purely based on match stats. Some good value bets in there for the betting inclined.
*Bookmaker prices are market averages taken from oddsportal.com
Lastly, here’s a gif of each team’s attack and defence ratings, broken up by each matchup.Below you can see each team’s overall rating. The greater the number in the last column is above 0, the stronger the home team are over their opponents, the lower the number below 0 the stronger the away side are.
The ratings suggest victories for Bournemouth, Manchester City, Southampton, Liverpool, and Manchester United.